Property News & Market Trends

Do you know the current supplies of properties?

We know about caveats(property sold & price) but who knows the supplies, really? The government will always supply back-dated figures of new project sales, office vacancy but not the number of residential properties on the market. Is that important? If so, why is there no such mechanism in place to gauge the supply & demand statistic. Surely this would give potential buyers & sellers a clearer picture of the market as compared to the everyday news splashed on record prices, raging buyers & short supply.

So, how can we get a better understanding on the supply status since there isn't any official figures, not even from the big 4 consultancies?

Easy. We can consolidate all sellers/agents who placed ads in the papers to sell. On top of that, we can gather information on the 'Exclusives' from the top agencies. That will give us a fair, though not completely accurate, figure to analyse from.

I use PowerSearch, an agent's power tool for this simple exercise and I'm sure the results will shock many, including agents & consultants.

From 1-13 July, there are approximately 14,000 private residential(excluding landed) propertiesfor sale. This include at least 2,600 units of subsales. If we go for a month, supplies can easily hit 22,000 units!

Now, let's look at the transactions last month, which will determine the current demand level. There are about 3600 units sold, about 30% from new or subsales. Compare this with the supply level, it's childish to say that demand outstripped supply, isn't it? Out of every unit sold, there are at least 18,000 units unsold! Yet you can hear from many sellers that their responses are overwhelming.

Question is, are there more than 8,000 buyers out there every month? Possibly but more likely an inflated "seemingly" figure as buyers are served by multiple agents. Imagine 6 agents serving the same buyer and calling the same seller? Does that give the seller an impression that the market is hot? It sure will.

Suffice to say, there are definitely more buyers flushed with tons of money from enbloc sales. By the end of this year, there'll be at least 6,000 buyers who can easily afford a $1m property. Imagine 30% of these buyers went on to purchase 2 or 3 units of $700-$800k property. Suddenly, demand will shoot up 3x. That's equivalent to an additional 4,000 ready buyers! The only worry I have is, who are going to stay in these properties? If our expats/students influx did not increase by 2009, we will definitely be facing a glut.

The most worrisome factor is still the speculators. Already, we can witness many subsales & flipping changing hands within 1-2 months, some within 3 days! Speculators don't bother about prices. They buy and flip as long as they have more than 10% margin. In this market, it's not difficult to spot these opportunities. All you need is the right data & software to power your search for moving targets.

We can't stop insane cash-rich enbloc sellers to offer "ridiculous" prices for certain properties. But we certainly should stop speculative fever as this is definitely detrimental to healthy growth. Without these rapid spikes, we can certainly look forward to many more good years. If not in check, once these speculation hit the masses, we don't need terrorist threat to stall our economy. The speculators have "terrorise" the market.

My next report will touch on the market that don't seem to move as well - HDB. When can it start to move? - Danny 'Bingo'

More ...

	How do you define "Trading" in property investment? Recently, the High Court accept a "Fengshui" appeal but reject the "Tenant" problem situation for taxing a couple's property investment.  This is a public awareness drive by the Taxman to 'highlight" the many property speculators, option traders that "trading" properties for profit IS taxable, ... 12 Sep 2007 - Read Details
	Property sales & enquiries seem to slow more than expected Buyers seem to be grinning the days. With the Sub-prime fears tailing off, the unwelcome news of the mammoth increase in Development Charges or the new rules for en bloc sales, the frenzy has literally disappeared. Thanks to the massive exodus of speculators & option-traders. Though buyers ... 3 Sep 2007 - Read Details
	Where have the buyers gone? It's really mystifying. In the first week of July, a 3cm display ad in ST Classifieds would get hordes of enquiries. In fact, we recorded more than 50 calls for 8 projects we placed out. You can feel the adrenlain flowing. If you're a seller or an agent, you'll feel esctatic. You may change your min ... 15 Aug 2007 - Read Details
	Is the sub-prime financial breakdown in US giving us a warning? Stocks bore the brunt of it all, banks, especially. In US & Europe, fears of the sub-prime markets sent sirens the world over. Asia, at its strongest growth was not spared. Miraculously, Singapore escaped the massacre. No doubt it fall by almost 4% in a day, confidence in our economy regain some ... 12 Aug 2007 - Read Details
	Can the Government's hike on Development Charge stem the rise of En Bloc sales? Property stocks got hit by a 2% drop. I say you should buy them. Seriously, what the Government did by introducing a back to normal DC is basically a gear shift. It will not impact any big developers as they can easily pass the buck, about an increase of 2-3% of the cost to the end buyers. ... 20 Jul 2007 - Read Details
	Speculators, take heed. The Government is monitoring closely. The last time the Government is a "little bit" concern, anti-speculation was introduced within 5 months in 1996. Though illy-timed, the market make a very sudden correction and history was made. Will it happen again? Unlikely. The last correction wipe off billions of dollars worth of assets of ... 3 Jul 2007 - Read Details
	Singapore property news in a nutshell Dreadful envy for Horizon Towers if Grangeford goes for $592m!Still unclear on who the final winner is over Horizon Tower surely make some people loses sleep the last 2 weeks. OUE, controlled by Lippo, went for a put-and-call option to acquire The Grangeford for $592 million or $1,810psf. The breake ... 26 Jun 2007 - Read Details
	Singapore property news in a nutshell Dark clouds over Horizon Towers deal for HPL or Owners?Horizon Towers condominium $500m deal could be off if the objectors have it their way. However, the Strata Titles Board brought the hearing forward after an appeal to stop the delay. The date for the tribunal to hear the objectors to the sale wa ... 21 Jun 2007 - Read Details
	Why 90% of us failed to Succeed? The property market is hot yet there are still many who don't seem to make more than they could. In this kind of market, making $2-3k pm is considered way below par. If you are one of those who don't seem to cut it, did you ask yourself why? Some men have thousands of reasons why they can't do what ... 19 Jun 2007 - Read Details
	Singapore property news in a nutshell. Supplies pouring in from GovernmentGovernment Land Sales (GLS) programme confirmed list of site to sustain building pace in Bay area. Marina view, to be open for tender in July, could provide more than 900,000 sqft of commercial space and the government is hoping this would ease the supply for prime ... 18 Jun 2007 - Read Details